Early release scheme could see dangerous criminals released, Conservatives warn

The government’s plan to ease chronic overcrowding in England and Wales prisons by releasing around 4,500 inmates in staged tranches from October has sparked a fierce political backlash, with the Conservative Party warning that the scheme could free dangerous criminals. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that anyone convicted of manslaughter would be barred from the early‑release programme after a campaign by the family of PC Andrew Harper, whose 2019 killing led to a public outcry over two men’s potential release. To create space, the administration intends to free prisoners serving indefinite “imprisonment for public protection” (IPP) sentences and to deport foreign nationals, while also excluding rapists, those guilty of serious child‑sex and grooming offences, and now manslaughter convicts. Victims Minister Alex Davies‑Jones stressed that the government would not take any action that endangers the public, and Shadow Justice Secretary Nick Timothy warned that releasing IPP holders—people already judged by expert assessors to pose a significant risk—could simply shift the danger from one group of offenders to another.

The controversy centers on the legacy of IPP sentences, which were introduced between 2005 and 2012 for offenders deemed a serious threat to society and required parole board approval after a minimum term before any release. Although the courts stopped imposing new IPPs in 2012, more than 2,200 individuals remain incarcerated under them, with 856 still denied parole because the board deems them unsafe. Timothy argued that by definition these prisoners are dangerous, citing high‑profile cases such as Tracey Connelly, the mother of “Baby P,” who remains behind bars after admitting responsibility for her child’s death. The Ministry of Justice’s latest data shows that ending indefinite sentences would require fresh legislation, a process that could take years, meaning any immediate relief to prison capacity would rely on the contentious early‑release route. Burnham, the Labour Home Secretary, defended the move as “common sense,” noting the inequity of keeping some long‑serving IPP inmates behind bars while others convicted of more serious crimes benefit from early release, and pledged to introduce legislation to terminate IPPs by the end of the current Parliament, accompanied by a cross‑party oversight body.

Reactions to the proposal have been mixed, reflecting broader tensions over public safety and criminal‑justice reform. Former Conservative Justice Secretary Sir Robert Buckland acknowledged that while some IPP prisoners are indeed a “real danger to the public,” the majority are recalled for relatively minor breaches of strict licence conditions, exemplified by Shaun Lloyd, who after eight years for street robbery was repeatedly sent back to prison for non‑violent infractions despite never having committed a violent offence. Lloyd’s mother, Shirley Debon, described his latest recall as “totally unfair.” Meanwhile, the government’s emphasis on individual case assessment and the promise of responsible legislation aim to reassure the public, but critics argue that the reduced number of releases—following the exclusion of rapists, child‑sex offenders, and manslaughter convicts—will blunt the scheme’s impact on alleviating overcrowding. As the debate unfolds, the balance between easing prison strain and protecting communities remains a pivotal issue for policymakers, victims’ families, and the broader electorate.

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