Trump’s ‘economic D-Day’ claims first victim: Not Iran, but US markets
Source: Al Jazeera ↗ (cross-verified by 3 outlets — full list below)
The US and Israel's war on Iran has upended global financial and energy markets. United States President Donald Trump has threatened a crushing financial campaign against Iran, which he has referred to as “economic D-Day”, as the war on Tehran continues to drag on. But on Thursday, the first casualty appeared to be US markets. As US crude oil nudged up from its Wednesday closing price of $86.20 per barrel to $86.70, the US stock market made its worst losses in three weeks. Meanwhile, the US announced its total debt has surpassed a record $40 trillion this week. Here’s what Trump has threatened and what the result has been so far. In a post on Truth Social on Wednesday, Trump said Iran had “failed to take” the opportunity to make a deal, and would face “economic warfare and isolation on an unprecedented scale”. He also threatened new sanctions against any country that does business with Iran. “ANY country that allows its financial institutions, businesses, airports, or government entities to provide any type of lifeline to Iran will itself face TREMENDOUS Economic Consequences,” he wrote. On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC again that this new “economic warfare” could include more secondary sanctions on other nations and companies that conduct business with Iran. The latest Trump administration rhetoric comes as the critical Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf remains closed to shipping, upending global energy and financial markets. Before the war, some 20 percent of global oil and natural gas supplies were shipped through this waterway. The war is increasingly becoming unpopular within the US as the costs of petrol and other living expenses rise. On Wednesday, Tehran dismissed Trump’s threats, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi calling the so-called “economic D-Day” a “diversion from America’s own crisis”.
The US and Israel’s war on Iran has paralysed the Strait of Hormuz, the only route to the open ocean through which Gulf oil producers can ship their exports. Before the war, some 130 ships passed through the strait each day. Now barely a handful get through. This has hugely unsettled the global energy and financial markets. Following Trump’s economic threats against Iran on Wednesday, global crude oil prices rose to nearly a one-month high on Thursday morning with Brent crude – the global benchmark – topping $93 a barrel. On Friday morning, the price of Brent remained at $93.28 a barrel. In the US, US crude oil climbed to $86.70 per barrel on Thursday. On Friday morning, it was trading at about $86.20. Meanwhile, US stock markets made their worst losses in three weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 703.84 points, or 1.32 percent, closing at 52,759.21 on Thursday evening. The S&P 500 lost 0.87 percent, closing at 7,641.16. Frederic Schneider, a nonresident senior fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, noted that the 30-year US Treasury yield pushed above 5.25 percent, close to a two-decade high after Trump’s announcement. This indicates that the price of US bonds is falling as investors avoid them, signalling a lack of confidence in the US. Bessent announced an emergency move to double the Treasury’s buybacks of long-dated debt to at least $4bn, but this did not calm the market.
“This is a strong signal, as the world’s most powerful treasury had to reach for extraordinary measures and failed to calm the market,” Schneider told Al Jazeera. “Long-dated Treasuries have faced a ‘buyers’ strike’ since June, driven by a widening federal deficit, a wave of AI-related corporate borrowing, and now an oil-price inflation premium layered on top,” he added. Yes. Analysts say both Iran and the US have been feeling the economic pressure of Washington’s war on Tehran. Schneider told Al Jazeera: “The ‘economic war’ keeps the Strait of Hormuz shut, which keeps oil [prices] elevated. The US Energy Information Administration does not expect Gulf output to recover to near pre-conflict levels until early 2027, and the shortage is fanning American inflation, which feeds into the bond market, which is where the real damage is now showing.” He added that the war has shone a light on the US’s vulnerabilities, despite having its own oil industry capable of providing for its needs. “The US is technically energy self-sufficient, but it is not insulated. Petrol prices and cost of living in general are a core topic in a midterm election year. But the Federal Reserve cannot cut rates to support a slowing economy without fuelling the very inflation the oil shock is generating,” he said. Furthermore, this week a US Department of the Treasury update revealed that total US debt has surpassed $40 trillion for the first time in history – two years before expected, as a result of the costs of the war and Trump’s lowering of corporate taxes. Schneider noted that the US also needs to consider its allies’ economies. “The Gulf states and the East Asian economies are the hardest hit by this war, and they are also among the largest holders of US assets,” he said.
⚡ Effects Interpreter
🌍World Economylow impact
What this means for you
- ▶Growth projections drawn up in distant capitals may need a rethink.
- ▶Global commerce often shrugs off small shocks, but keeps one eye open.
🏙️Local Economylow impact
What this means for you
- ▶Neighbourhood traders often adjust subtly rather than all at once.
- ▶Local suppliers who import goods could pass on any change in costs.
🏦Rates & Banksmedium impact
What this means for you
- ▶Your loan or mortgage rate is more likely to drift than to lurch here.
- ▶Any move in rates would probably come down the road, not overnight.
❤️Healthmedium impact
What this means for you
- ▶Local wellbeing services are there precisely for moments when news feels overwhelming.
- ▶A short walk or a chat with a friend can do wonders when headlines feel heavy.
💷Wealthmedium impact
What this means for you
- ▶Diversified savings usually cushion the blow from stories like this.
- ▶Savers with a clear plan tend to feel less rattled by this kind of news.
🏠Housinglow impact
What this means for you
- ▶First-time buyers might keep half an eye on mortgage rates after this.
- ▶Property values usually need more than one headline to really move.
🌍 Effects for your country
The U.S.'s central bank rate currently stands at 3.75%, so a global rates move like this could feed through to local borrowing costs. The U.S.'s economy is growing at 2.3% with inflation at 3.2%, the backdrop this story's effects play out against locally. Housing-market effects like this are usually felt most where mortgage rates track the U.S.'s own central bank rate closely. With the U.S.'s unemployment at 4.4%, personal-finance effects like this land on a labour market that is currently fairly stable. Health-system effects are harder to localise from economic indicators alone — the real impact in the U.S. depends more on local healthcare capacity than the figures above.
The UK's central bank rate currently stands at 3.75%, so a global rates move like this could feed through to local borrowing costs. The UK's economy is growing at 0.8% with inflation at 3.2%, the backdrop this story's effects play out against locally. Housing-market effects like this are usually felt most where mortgage rates track the UK's own central bank rate closely. With the UK's unemployment at 5.6%, personal-finance effects like this land on a labour market that is currently fairly stable. Health-system effects are harder to localise from economic indicators alone — the real impact in the UK depends more on local healthcare capacity than the figures above.
France's central bank rate currently stands at 2%, so a global rates move like this could feed through to local borrowing costs. France's economy is growing at 0.9% with inflation at 1.8%, the backdrop this story's effects play out against locally. Housing-market effects like this are usually felt most where mortgage rates track France's own central bank rate closely. With France's unemployment at 7.9%, personal-finance effects like this land on a labour market that is already under strain. Health-system effects are harder to localise from economic indicators alone — the real impact in France depends more on local healthcare capacity than the figures above.
Romania's central bank rate currently stands at 6.5%, so a global rates move like this could feed through to local borrowing costs. Romania's economy is growing at 0.7% with inflation at 7.8%, the backdrop this story's effects play out against locally. Housing-market effects like this are usually felt most where mortgage rates track Romania's own central bank rate closely. With Romania's unemployment at 6%, personal-finance effects like this land on a labour market that is currently fairly stable. Health-system effects are harder to localise from economic indicators alone — the real impact in Romania depends more on local healthcare capacity than the figures above.
The UAE's central bank rate currently stands at 3.65%, so a global rates move like this could feed through to local borrowing costs. The UAE's economy is growing at 3.1% with inflation at 2.5%, the backdrop this story's effects play out against locally. Housing-market effects like this are usually felt most where mortgage rates track the UAE's own central bank rate closely. Health-system effects are harder to localise from economic indicators alone — the real impact in the UAE depends more on local healthcare capacity than the figures above.