Covid, Brexit and Liz Truss mini-budget led to lasting decline in mental health, study finds
Source: Guardian Health ↗
Researchers analysing data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study identified five “systemic shocks” over the past decade that have inflicted lasting damage on the nation’s mental health. The most consequential were the Brexit referendum in June 2016 and the first COVID‑19 lockdown in March 2020, which together added roughly one‑million extra GP consultations for depression‑related symptoms. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 generated an additional 15,000 monthly visits, while the September 2022 mini‑budget announced by then‑Prime Minister Liz Truss spurred about 23,000 more monthly consultations. The study, led by Dr Annie Jeffery of University College London and soon to be featured in a government‑commissioned inquiry by Prof Peter Fonagy, used the GHQ‑12 screening tool to quantify rises in psychological distress across 87,857 adults aged 16 and over between 2009 and 2024.
The findings underscore how overlapping political, economic and geopolitical events have compounded an already upward trend in mental ill‑health that began around 2015. According to the analysis, the cumulative effect of these shocks has driven a clinically significant increase in depression and anxiety, contributing to a surge in NHS mental‑health contacts that nearly doubled from 2.64 million in 2016‑17 to 4.13 million in 2024‑25. The cost of this rising burden is estimated at £300 billion annually, and the monthly influx of new referrals jumped 47 percent—from 360,000 in April 2022 to 530,000 by July 2026—leaving services stretched thin. Experts such as Andy Bell of the Centre for Mental Health attribute the escalation not to a single cause but to the additive impact of these events, exacerbated by years of austerity that eroded societal buffers against such stressors.
The persistent elevation in distress signals that the population has not reverted to pre‑2016 mental‑health baselines, even though the most recent shock occurred in 2022. Tom Pollard of the mental‑health charity Mind warns that the NHS is struggling to meet the unprecedented demand, as more people seek support for anxiety, stress and worry triggered by the identified events. The upcoming publication of Prof Fonagy’s inquiry report on the surge in diagnoses of mental illness, ADHD and autism is expected to further illuminate the broader implications for employment, with 2.8 million Britons now too ill to work and nearly one million young adults classified as “NEETs.” The study’s authors call for renewed policy focus to build resilience against future systemic shocks and to address the growing strain on mental‑health services.
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The U.S.'s central bank rate currently stands at 3.75%, so a global rates move like this could feed through to local borrowing costs. The U.S.'s economy is growing at 2.3% with inflation at 3.2%, the backdrop this story's effects play out against locally. Housing-market effects like this are usually felt most where mortgage rates track the U.S.'s own central bank rate closely. With the U.S.'s unemployment at 4.4%, personal-finance effects like this land on a labour market that is currently fairly stable. Health-system effects are harder to localise from economic indicators alone — the real impact in the U.S. depends more on local healthcare capacity than the figures above.
The UK's central bank rate currently stands at 3.75%, so a global rates move like this could feed through to local borrowing costs. The UK's economy is growing at 0.8% with inflation at 3.2%, the backdrop this story's effects play out against locally. Housing-market effects like this are usually felt most where mortgage rates track the UK's own central bank rate closely. With the UK's unemployment at 5.6%, personal-finance effects like this land on a labour market that is currently fairly stable. Health-system effects are harder to localise from economic indicators alone — the real impact in the UK depends more on local healthcare capacity than the figures above.
France's central bank rate currently stands at 2%, so a global rates move like this could feed through to local borrowing costs. France's economy is growing at 0.9% with inflation at 1.8%, the backdrop this story's effects play out against locally. Housing-market effects like this are usually felt most where mortgage rates track France's own central bank rate closely. With France's unemployment at 7.9%, personal-finance effects like this land on a labour market that is already under strain. Health-system effects are harder to localise from economic indicators alone — the real impact in France depends more on local healthcare capacity than the figures above.
Romania's central bank rate currently stands at 6.5%, so a global rates move like this could feed through to local borrowing costs. Romania's economy is growing at 0.7% with inflation at 7.8%, the backdrop this story's effects play out against locally. Housing-market effects like this are usually felt most where mortgage rates track Romania's own central bank rate closely. With Romania's unemployment at 6%, personal-finance effects like this land on a labour market that is currently fairly stable. Health-system effects are harder to localise from economic indicators alone — the real impact in Romania depends more on local healthcare capacity than the figures above.
The UAE's central bank rate currently stands at 3.65%, so a global rates move like this could feed through to local borrowing costs. The UAE's economy is growing at 3.1% with inflation at 2.5%, the backdrop this story's effects play out against locally. Housing-market effects like this are usually felt most where mortgage rates track the UAE's own central bank rate closely. Health-system effects are harder to localise from economic indicators alone — the real impact in the UAE depends more on local healthcare capacity than the figures above.