How Sabalenka could lose No 1 ranking at US Open

Aryna Sabalenka entered the 2026 US Open under pressure, needing a title to preserve her 99‑week reign as world No. 1. After a spectacular “Sunshine Double” at Indian Wells and Miami that gave her a 3,000‑point cushion, the 28‑year‑old Belarusian’s form slipped, leaving her with a 17‑7 record since Miami, a French Open quarter‑final loss, and a fourth‑round exit at Wimbledon. With 2,000 points to defend in New York and Elena Rybakina only 434 points behind, Sabalenka must win the tournament to stay atop the rankings; otherwise, Rybakina could claim No. 1 even without winning a match, provided Sabalenka, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff fail to capture the title.

Sabalenka’s recent struggles have been linked to lapses in mental focus, evident in her fourth‑round defeat to 20‑year‑old Sara Bejlek at the Cincinnati Open after leading 5‑1 in the first‑set tiebreak and 4‑1 in the second set. Similar collapses occurred in Toronto against Ekaterina Alexandrova and during the clay swing, where she surrendered leads against Hailey Baptiste, Sorana Cîrstea and Diana Shnaider. The Belarusian acknowledges the need to reset her mindset, stating that the “tough lessons” will make her stronger. Meanwhile, Rybakina, who beat Sabalenka at the Australian Open, faces her own hurdle—a lingering ankle injury from Cincinnati—but requires fewer points to overtake the top spot, needing only a semi‑final run if Sabalenka wins the title.

The broader field adds further intrigue. Pegula, a consistent contender despite never winning a major, hopes her recent finals in Washington and Cincinnati will springboard her home‑court bid, while Gauff returns with renewed confidence after a Cincinnati victory and a 2023 US Open title. On the men’s side, Carlos Alcaraz is making a comeback from a wrist injury, but Jannik Sinner is out with a knee problem, leaving a vacuum that could benefit Novak Djokovic, who is chasing a record 25th Grand Slam. The depth of the top ten, featuring players like Mirra Andreeva, Linda Noskova and Iga Świątek, underscores a highly competitive landscape where Sabalenka’s performance in New York could reshape the hierarchy of both the women’s and men’s tours.

⚡ Effects Interpreter