'Slim chance' government will hit 1.5m new homes target, Rayner tells BBC

Housing Secretary Angela Rayner told the BBC there is only a “slim chance” the government will meet its manifesto pledge to deliver 1.5 million new homes in England by the next election, citing the Iran war and soaring construction costs as major headwinds. Rayner stressed that the target remains a “stretch” but she will not abandon it, noting that home starts rose 15 % last year and that the government is investing billions in social and affordable housing. The Labour promise, set for delivery by the summer of 2029, requires an average of 300,000 new dwellings a year – a rate not seen for decades.

Data up to June 2026 show the pace is far below what is needed: about 203,000 homes were completed in the 12‑month period, well short of the 300,000 annual goal. Analysts point to a decline in construction that began under the Conservatives and has continued into Labour’s first year, exacerbated by high house prices, labour shortages post‑Brexit, and the cost pressures from global conflict. Rayner’s predecessor, Steve Reed, warned that a sharp surge in building would be required and had hoped planning reforms would eventually lift output. The government’s reforms, including changes to green‑belt rules, are intended to expand buildable land, but critics argue they may not offset the current economic constraints.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham has pledged the “biggest council‑house building programme since the post‑war period,” though details remain vague. BBC Verify’s tracking of Energy Performance Certificate data underscores the shortfall, while the broader housing strategy hinges on whether the announced reforms and funding can translate into the 70,000 social and affordable homes slated for construction over the next decade, and ultimately whether the ambitious 1.5 million‑home target can be salvaged before the 2029 deadline.

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