US and Canada haggle over trade deal as midnight tariffs threat looms

Negotiators from the United States and Canada are racing against a midnight Friday deadline to finalize a tentative trade agreement that would avert a fresh wave of U.S. tariffs on a broad swath of Canadian goods. Canadian trade minister Dominic LeBlanc, after an eight‑hour session with U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer and other officials in Washington, told reporters the talks were still ongoing and would continue “up until the last minute.” President Donald Trump, who has paused new tariffs on Canada for three days, said the deal was “moving along” and expressed confidence that a pact could be reached, while also hinting at a new, “much better” agreement with Mexico. Leaked details suggest the framework would cut U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium from 50 % to 25 % and reduce automobile duties from 25 % to 15 %, restore the sale of American alcohol in Canada, and potentially grant U.S. dairy producers greater market access in exchange for Canada dropping its retaliatory tariffs.

The stakes of the negotiations are high for both economies, as failure to reach a deal could trigger a 50 % tariff surge on items ranging from hockey equipment to wine and cement, jeopardizing up to 90,000 Canadian jobs according to a Calgary‑based economist’s analysis. Domestic opposition is mounting: Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre warned that any arrangement imposing “one‑sided” tariffs would harm Canada’s industrial base, while provincial leaders such as Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew urged the federal government not to rush concessions. Quebec’s premier, Christine Fréchette, is scrutinizing the impact on the province’s dairy sector before deciding on reinstating U.S. alcohol sales, and Ontario premier Doug Ford has remained silent. Other premiers, including those of Nova Scotia and the Yukon, have signaled willingness to restore alcohol sales, a move the federal government hopes will secure reductions in metal and auto tariffs.

The political fallout extends beyond the negotiating table. Prime Minister Mark Carney, who campaigned on a hard‑line stance toward Trump, faces pressure from business groups, provincial premiers, and a public that, according to a Leger poll, 56 % of respondents want a tough approach and would be dissatisfied with major concessions. A leaked audio clip of U.S. Vice‑President J.D. Vance suggested Carney’s “out‑tough” posture was being portrayed as a Canadian victory, even as critics argue the government is conceding on many issues. Local officials, such as the mayor of an Ontario city home to the nation’s second‑largest steel producer, expressed concern that a 25 % tariff on steel would not benefit their community. As the deadline looms, the outcome will shape not only bilateral trade flows but also the political capital of Canada’s federal and provincial leaders.

⚡ Effects Interpreter