‘We don’t have inflation’? Five charts show the US economic reality of Trump’s second term so far
Source: Guardian Econ ↗
As the US midterm elections approach, we take a look at data to see a true picture of the US economy under Trump With the midterm elections fast approaching, many Americans have the economy on their minds.
US voters are exhausted by years of higher prices. Donald Trump won the presidency in 2024 on promises to lower inflation and undo the damage he said the Biden administration had inflicted on the economy.
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⚡ Effects Interpreter
🌍World Economylow impact
What this means for you
- ▶The world's biggest economies tend to watch each other's data closely.
- ▶International lenders may factor this into their next round of forecasts.
🏙️Local Economylow impact
What this means for you
- ▶Local shops that rely on imports could gradually reset their price tags.
- ▶Your cost of living might feel a soft nudge either way.
🏦Rates & Bankslow impact
What this means for you
- ▶The cost of borrowing tends to shift gradually rather than in one leap.
- ▶Banks generally prefer a wait-and-see approach before touching their rates.
❤️Healthhigh impact
What this means for you
- ▶Local surgeries and clinics might see a short-lived rise in enquiries.
- ▶Unsettling news can weigh on sleep and mood, so peace of mind matters.
💷Wealthlow impact
What this means for you
- ▶A modest, well-diversified nest egg tends to absorb shocks like this gradually.
- ▶Long-term savers usually ride out these slight bumps just fine.
🏠Housingmedium impact
What this means for you
- ▶Property values usually need more than one headline to really move.
- ▶A slow-moving market like housing rarely reacts overnight.
🌍 Effects for your country
The U.S.'s central bank rate currently stands at 3.75%, so a global rates move like this could feed through to local borrowing costs. The U.S.'s economy is growing at 2.3% with inflation at 3.2%, the backdrop this story's effects play out against locally. Housing-market effects like this are usually felt most where mortgage rates track the U.S.'s own central bank rate closely. With the U.S.'s unemployment at 4.4%, personal-finance effects like this land on a labour market that is currently fairly stable. Health-system effects are harder to localise from economic indicators alone — the real impact in the U.S. depends more on local healthcare capacity than the figures above.
The UK's central bank rate currently stands at 3.75%, so a global rates move like this could feed through to local borrowing costs. The UK's economy is growing at 0.8% with inflation at 3.2%, the backdrop this story's effects play out against locally. Housing-market effects like this are usually felt most where mortgage rates track the UK's own central bank rate closely. With the UK's unemployment at 5.6%, personal-finance effects like this land on a labour market that is currently fairly stable. Health-system effects are harder to localise from economic indicators alone — the real impact in the UK depends more on local healthcare capacity than the figures above.
France's central bank rate currently stands at 2%, so a global rates move like this could feed through to local borrowing costs. France's economy is growing at 0.9% with inflation at 1.8%, the backdrop this story's effects play out against locally. Housing-market effects like this are usually felt most where mortgage rates track France's own central bank rate closely. With France's unemployment at 7.9%, personal-finance effects like this land on a labour market that is already under strain. Health-system effects are harder to localise from economic indicators alone — the real impact in France depends more on local healthcare capacity than the figures above.
Romania's central bank rate currently stands at 6.5%, so a global rates move like this could feed through to local borrowing costs. Romania's economy is growing at 0.7% with inflation at 7.8%, the backdrop this story's effects play out against locally. Housing-market effects like this are usually felt most where mortgage rates track Romania's own central bank rate closely. With Romania's unemployment at 6%, personal-finance effects like this land on a labour market that is currently fairly stable. Health-system effects are harder to localise from economic indicators alone — the real impact in Romania depends more on local healthcare capacity than the figures above.
The UAE's central bank rate currently stands at 3.65%, so a global rates move like this could feed through to local borrowing costs. The UAE's economy is growing at 3.1% with inflation at 2.5%, the backdrop this story's effects play out against locally. Housing-market effects like this are usually felt most where mortgage rates track the UAE's own central bank rate closely. Health-system effects are harder to localise from economic indicators alone — the real impact in the UAE depends more on local healthcare capacity than the figures above.